The South Central Illinois LEAM project will involve ten separate but related tasks:

1.       Land-Use Modeling: LEAMbasic

     LEAM is a regional model and can be effectively applied to a range of scales.  In this case, South Central Illinois will be the study area; this includes Effingham, Fayette, Jasper, and Marion Counties .  Hopefully, Clay County will also be added to the study area.  LEAMbasic model will incorporate input data from South Central Illinois and involved counties as appropriate.  LEAMbasic is designed around the use of readily available data sources (USGS, U.S. Census Bureau, FEMA, etc.).  In some cases SCIRP&DC, counties, or other local agencies may have more recent or more accurate data sets that can be used as a replacement for national data on the LEAMbasic application.

     A secure website, maintained by LEAM for the duration of this contract, will be used to coordinate data.  All model data, GIS coverages, and impact information will be available through this website.  Web content will be made available to South Central Illinois RPC at the completion of this contract.  The LEAMbasic model will be run in a high-performance computing environment and will be analyzed for development probabilities at each time step.  Maps that summarize the change in each run and that show differences between runs will be also be generated for analysis. 

      The development of LEAMbasic will also involve the development of an economic model for the region.  The model is a coupled input-output econometric models that forecast economic changes specific to the region over the next thirty years.  This model is necessary to project future population, housing, and employment growth in the region.  This model also allows us to conduct alternatives scenarios involving large public investments or economic development projects that are likely to affect the local economy.

      LEAMbasic will be run for 3 baseline and one alternative scenario.  The primary baseline scenario will use a population projection for the region based on the results of the LEAM economic model.  Two other baseline scenarios bracket this population projection by providing higher (+25%) and extreme growth (+200%) estimates.  These baseline scenarios are used to compare and understand other scenarios. 

2.       Model Data Output

     Model results will be provided in several formats including GIS data, images, and spreadsheet formats.  A report incorporating these elements will be made available in both a printed form and published on the web.

• GIS data is provided in raster format.  The preferred file format is ArcView ASCII Grid Exchange format.
• Images of final land-use and summary maps highlighting areas of changes to land-use are provided in GIF format.
• Impact analysis provides quantitative data about land-use and population change (in total acreage and percentage change.  This data is provided in five-year intervals and broken down for individual townships.  Impact analysis data is provided in spreadsheet (Microsoft Excel) format.

     Results are stored on a secure web server maintained by LEAM for retrieval through a web browser for the duration of the project.  Access to model results is limited and at the discretion of the South Central Illinois Regional Planning and Development Commission’s Board of Commissioners.  Model results can also be made available on CD-ROMs to eliminate the need for downloading potentially large data files

3.       Community Involvement

     LEAM will work with the SCIRP&DC staff and members of the Community Matters Program at the University of Illinois  to conduct two community charrettes.  These charrettes actively engage the community in discussions of land-use change and its implications.  Charrettes also provide material that can inform more advanced follow-up projects.  Participants identify issues of local concern in the form of land-use drivers (that can be utilized to build a more advanced local model), and identify scenarios of local significance (policy choices and investments).  A charrette will be conducted at the beginning and the end of the project by LEAM and SCIRP&DC.  Additional charrettes at the initial stage of the process will be conducted with other stakeholder groups throughout the region by the Community Matters Program and the University of Illinois-Extension Office, with training and assistance from the LEAM Lab.

      The initial charrette will have workshop participants consider the outcomes of the baseline land-use maps. Questions about the reasonableness or likelihood of the region’s growth and land-use changes as described by the model results will be posed and challenged.  Reasons why (or why not) particular outcomes are likely to occur will be considered and provide a foundation for the collective brainstorming sessions that follow.

      This charrette begins with a description of the tools and methodologies used by the LEAM process to the entire participating group.  Following the larger group presentation of the LEAMbasic outcomes, workshop participants are divided into smaller groups for more detailed and intimate discussions. Each group is lead by a facilitator’ (a planning professional familiar with the LEAM project) and asked to consider specific questions to initiate discussion.  After the small group discussion on development drivers, a member from each group reports the results in a full group session. The non-prioritized, complete listing of all land-use driving forces considered by the smaller groups is then available for review and reporting.  A summary of prioritized drivers is then established by giving each participant 10 “votes” for what they considered to be the most important driving forces for land-use change in the region.  The brainstorming and prioritization process is then repeated for defining scenarios.

     The second charrette will be a presentation of the final results of the project and a discussion of possible followup ideas for LEAM analysis.

4.                 Internet-based planning support system

     An internet-based planning tool will be developed to make key information for planning available for local officials, stakeholder groups, and the public to view and conduct analysis.  This system will allow local stakeholders and the public to view various combinations of base data (administrative boundaries, roads & infrastructure, and demographic data), resource (natural, agricultural, cultural) inventory layers, system-of-plans components (various municipal, county, regional and other plans), and LEAM simulations (for several different scenarios). The system will allow users to select from a menu which layers of information they want to view, allow them to zoom in to any particular area of the county, and permit users to print a high quality map. 

     This will also include the development of an on-line training module that will have step-by-step instructions on how to use the web-based planning support system to do a variety of planning analyses.

5.       System of Plans

     One key component of the planning support system is a system of plans.  A “system of plans” is a more effective way to understand the future development of a region than any one traditional comprehensive plan.  A web-based “system of plans” brings together development/resource plans from various local and state agencies and allows for parts of different plans relevant to a particular decision situation to be retrieved to see where gaps, conflicts and commonality among plans exist, leading to a more informed decision-making process.  We will collect digitally available plans in the south central Illinois region which may include watershed plans, regional plans, county or municipal comprehensive plans, transportation plans, sewer and water infrastructure plans to name just a few.  Once all these plans are entered in the system of plans, a querying system will be developed to allow local stakeholders to make inquiries on various types of public investments and projects, and other potential actions included in these plans.

6.                 Training Seminars

     There will be four training seminars conducted to demonstrate how the planning support system tool can be used to support planning analyses and activities in the region.  We will also solicit ideas for how to improve the system and other data to include as part of the next phase of the project.

7.                 Additional localization and scenario development

     LEAM will “localize” the model by implementing the suggestions and comments on LEAMbasic provided at the charrettes.  LEAM will also conduct 6-8 more scenarios based on input from local stakeholders (though the final selection of the additional scenarios is at the discretion of the LEAM based on availability of data and difficulty of simulation).  LEAM scenarios associate future land-use patterns with different demographic or economic trends, public policy choices, and public investment decisions (such as transportation and economic development).  Two examples of transportation related scenarios that may be considered are the realignment of US 51 and reconstruction and more limited access of US 50.  Because the additional scenarios have not yet been identified and can be an open-ended and potentially difficult process (involving everything from basic research, data collection, model development, and model calibration), the selection of the additional scenarios is at the discretion of the LEAM.  However, consensus is the goal, and every effort will be made to develop scenarios that are identified by and important to the community.

      The results of these scenarios will be integrated into the typical LEAM analysis and reporting process.  Comparison maps between additional and baseline scenarios will be provided.  All of this information will also be available in the planning support system.  There will also be a follow-up dialogue with a community in the region after the completion of the LEAM simulation and analysis, and development of planning support system, to consider how existing local plans might be modified to accommodate the insights from this analysis

8.                 Conduct detailed impact analysis

     LEAM will conduct detailed analysis of the impacts of landuse change in the region for each of the scenarios.  Impact analysis could include an assessment of infrastructure impacts (comparisons of projected growth with infrastructure capacity for schools, water and sanitary districts, or fire/police), an environmental stress analysis (identify prime farmland and natural resources at risk to future development), or other impacts of interest to local stakeholders (depending on availability of data).

 9.       Reports

     Three reports will be developed during the implementation of this project.  The first report will provide results from the initial baseline model runs (for reporting purposes and for informing stakeholders in the community involvement sessions).  Content includes LEAMbasic model descriptions, model results, land-use maps, summary maps, and impact analysis tables and graphs.  Reports will be distributed during the charrettes and to the South Central Illinois board.

     The second report will summarize the information learned during the community charrettes.  This will include the feedback provided by local stakeholders including an assessment of the initial model simulations, identification of drivers of growth in the region, and suggested land-use scenarios.  We will also summarize the voting on each of these topics and identify the next steps in the LEAM project.    

     The third report will be the final results of the localization of LEAM and the the additional scenarios conducted.  This will include land-use maps, summary maps, impact analysis tables and graphs for each scenario, and the results of the more detailed impact analysis.   A minimum of 25 copies of each report will be printed and they will also be made available through the website.

10.     Project Management

     Continued communication between project participants is an important factor to project success.  To meet this goal, three forums are proposed.

•          Bi-Monthly Teleconference

     A management teleconference will be held twice a month.  The teleconferences will cover the status of project deliverables and discussions of new issues.  Meeting minutes will be kept by LEAM and mailed to the South Central Illinois contact point.  These minutes will also serve as written progress reports as required by the contract.

•          Monthly Progress Report

     A monthly progress report will be drafted based on minutes of the management teleconference, progress on project deliverables, and information about the next steps.  This report will be mailed to members of the county board indicating progress made on the project.

•          Multiple Sign-off Opportunities

     Project milestones provide three opportunities for the South Central Illinois Regional Planning and Development Commission and its participating local government representatives to review the intermediate results and formally approve project progress.  This allows the Commission and local officials to review all products of the project prior to their integration into next steps.  Sign-off will also be used to manage disclosure of results to the public.