This model determines the growth potential of all land within the greater LEAM model. Population, geography, and land use for a particular study area serve as background information from which decisions are based concerning future land use changes. The development probability for any cell within the study area is determined by the input of other driver sub-models. Economics, transportation, utilities, neighboring land uses, and random chance all contribute to a final growth decision within a given cell. Each of these factors is weighted to determine the cell's development probability value according to local uniqueness of the study area. Based on this probability value, the land use classification of a given cell either remains as its initial type or transitions to a new urban type.

Most land use types are assessed this way. However, if the initial land use is agricultural, its future land use is determined by comparing the results of the Development Probability Model to those generated by a competing Open Space Probability Model. Consequently, an agricultural cell has the potential of becoming urbanized, conserved as open space, or it may remain agricultural.